One of my favorite thought leaders is the brilliant but affable Jeremy Siegel of Wharton. In his latest commentary, he thinks the stock market will remain relatively range-bound for the next 3-4 months before a breakout upwards. The continued flow of cash from the Fed is the major support of the economy. For example, M2, the conventional measure of money supply continues to reach new…
One Sunday morning many years ago, I sat in a pew, listening to a minister who preached that God loves all people, even bad people — because every person has some good in them. Unfortunately, he went on to say God even loved Hitler. Everybody sitting in the pews immediately straightened their back and listened. The minister smiled, waved his hand, and said “Hey, he…
There’s more to investing that mere numbers. There’s more to accounting than mere debits and credits. There’s more to financial planning than canned software programs. Clients are human. They need fewer numbers and more human advice, even young millennials . Alexander Kearns was a 20-year-old resident in Illinois. Like so many, he signed up with a robo-advisor, thinking he could out-smart the stock market. He…
Do you remember the year of 2010? That was the year of the “Flash Crash”. It happened on May 6th, when the stock market suddenly fell almost a thousand points, losing a trillion dollars, before recovering 36 minutes later. It was a market event . . . of temporary significance. Do you remember the year of 2020? That was the year of the “Flash Depression.” …
Without numbers, an opinion is nothing more than a gut-feeling. So, here’s my gut feeling: 1. The stock market hit a bottom in March. 2. A modest rebound was expected. 3. Instead, the market rebounded very, very strongly. 4. Market watchers could not explain the strength of the rebound. 5. However, an increase in retail traders and day-trading was also inexplicable. 6. Professional sports were…
Imagine looking out your front window. On the sidewalk across the street, a man, an auditor-looking man in a trench coat sits in a lawn chair with a clipboard on his lap. When your lights come on each morning, he makes a note on his clipboard. When you get the newspaper off the front porch, he makes another note. The time you leave for work…
Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their monthly unemployment report. It was much better than expected, showing unemployment dropped 1.4% instead of increasing 4-5%. I wrote “Something Smells” about this. After all, how could 30 million workers be receiving unemployment benefits, when the BLS said only 20 million workers were unemployed? Later that day, the President used the report to claim we…
Incivility in politics runs in cycles. Believe it or not, this is not the worst partisanship in our history, although I do suspect we are near the low point in this cycle. Tracing this cycle back to its beginning, you might find Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich instructing freshman congressmen to avoid fraternization with opposing members. No lunches together, no drinks after work, no…
Lars von Trier is the greatest film director you’ve probably never heard of. Maybe that’s because he is Danish, or maybe because he doesn’t make movies for the mainstream. Those movies are existential to the core, with a stream of surrealism meandering between the comedic and the absurd. A-list actors beg for the experience of being in his movies. I love his work! The recent…
As people approach retirement, their anxiety rises, and this is natural. After all, retirement is a great unknown. Most people focus solely on income replacement, but there is so much more to consider. In fact, that’s not even close to the beginning point. Start with identifying your risks, keeping in mind that risk is a part of life that everybody must accept. Bankers have a…
My Democratic friends are understandably concerned that there are unidentified soldiers roaming the capital. These are soldiers without any apparent identification. It is unknown what military service or what unit they represent. There is no way to determine where they came from. I understand how unsettling that can be, but it is not the first time. When I graduated from Special Forces Officers Course in…
What are you gonna believe — economics or statistics? Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their monthly employment report for May. Economists were expecting another 8 million workers lost their jobs and that the rate of unemployment would rise from 14.7% to 19.5%. Instead, according to this report, 8 million workers did NOT lose their jobs. In fact, 2.5 million workers got hired. That’s…
I remember reading that marriages during the year of 1968 had the highest rate of divorce. The theory was that marriages during heightened levels of unrest stressed relationships too much? Maybe . . . ? After all, 1968 was the year of the Hong Kong virus, which killed a million people worldwide. That was an election year, with massive protests against the Vietnam War, causing…
During my time at the Kennedy Special Warfare Center, I learned that only dinosaurs believe the atomic bomb is the ultimate weapon. We learned the ultimate weapon is the guerrilla — highly motivated individuals who can operate independently behind front lines for long periods, to damage and confuse superior military forces. Defeating a guerrilla force is like playing “whack-a-mole” — kill one here and another…
In 2016, Colin Kaepernick was quarterback for the San Francisco 49er’s. During the playing of the National Anthem, he refused to stand and “took a knee,” saying any country who tolerated such racism was not worthy of respect. To me, I saw disrespect to the flag and strongly condemned him. My binary view was the flag versus single-issue activism. Later, I learned that Colin is…
After spending decades studying the economy, it is understandable that this blog is usually about the economy, but it hasn’t been that way recently. That’s because all the data has been relentlessly dismal – the worst I have ever seen. What’s the point of elaborating the obvious? The current economy sucks! Here is some of the recent data: Factory output dropped 11.2% in April, the…
Today is May 29th – traditionally financial planners use this date to remind their clients about 529 plans, which are tax-efficient ways to fund education expenses for kids and grand-kids (and other relatives). These plans were initially very popular and still should be. The very wealthy can put $150 thousand in an unlimited number of 529 plans for an unlimited number of kids and grand-kids. …
For some reason, I took a sophomore course entitled “The Philosophy of Logic” and have always been glad I did. The concept of syllogism has been helpful to me over the years. (You’ll remember that as – if A, then B – if B, then C – therefore, if A, then C) Still, it was an offhand remark by the professor that made a deeper…
For some long-forgotten reason, I still have a checking account at Bank of America. With their latest monthly statements, there was an insert suggesting the seven questions you should ask a potential financial advisor, which are: What types of clients do you work with? Okay, that’s a fair question. One example would be increased familiarity by the advisor with the myriad of financial programs for…
In early 1992, I was appointed by the governor to the Texas State Depository Board. It was a four-member board composed of the State Treasurer, State Controller, State Banking Commissioner, and myself. As it was during the Texas Savings and Loan (S&L) scandal, when taxpayer losses would exceed $300 billion, I met a great many executives from those failed and failing institutions. Without exception, I…
Most market watchers are familiar with the old rule-of-thumb that the stock market changes directions about 6 months or so before the overall economy, based on the assumption that investors study the economy more closely than most people. There is a lesser known rule-of-thumb that the art market changes directions about 3 months or so before the stock market, based on the assumption that art…
Ian Bremmer is the founder & CEO of Eurasia Group, an international risk consulting firm. He is also one of the most original thinkers I follow. You know he must be an original thinker, if he sees a silver lining to the current pandemic and economic collapse. Like pain is “good training” in the Army, he sees this viral-collapse is good training for a massive…
Even after all these years, I’m still pretty good with guns and have to roll-my-eyes whenever I see these hot-headed, gun-totting wannabe-protectors demonstrating for the freedom to congregate in churches and bars. Or, maybe it is to strut around with their macho-guns? For years, I have railed about Americans losing their privacy. Where are these “brave” demonstrators on privacy? There is a greater chance we…
My father always cautioned me to never discuss politics, religion, or how to raise children. Unfortunately, I must often discuss politics, as it is scrambled with economics, but I still avoid partisanship. On the other hand, I never discuss child-rearing, because I frankly don’t have a clue. I do take his advice about religion and don’t think I have ever quoted a religious leader before,…
How much fiscal assistance does our economy need? The Democratic programmed response is “more” and the Republican programmed response is “less.” Neither is helpful. Here’s a different way to look at it. Assume our GDP is about $20 trillion per year, and it is. Assume our first and fourth quarters (Q1 and Q4) are about flat, which is reasonable. Now, assume Q2 and Q3 are…
One way to estimate the size of our economy is this: GDP equals the average number of transactions each year times the average price of transactions. (GDP = TP) Another way is this: GDP equals money supply times the velocity of money. (GDP = MV) The velocity of money is the number of times a dollar is spent each year. That means: TP = MV…
First, I have a very intelligent friend, who is susceptible to conspiracy theories. Because of that, I do enjoy debating with him. Although he is not the religious type, he believes that Evil exists, as an actual entity, not a mere characteristic of a demented person. Evil roams the planet, he says. Second, I love my country. I love my family. I love my friends. …
This type of torture is a slow drip of cold water on the face for an extended period, creating such a state of anticipation for the next drop, that the victim eventually becomes insane. That is the experience of most economists during this Great Collapse, anticipating the next piece of bad news. Almost all economic datapoints have been relentlessly negative. Usually, there are good datapoints…
Economists tend to be a smug bunch, comfortable with their ability to see the future. After all, we’ve seen thousands of economic datapoints over many decades and have a good feel for normal limits. Then, the coronavirus changed everything! No economist has ever seen unemployment increase 20.5 million souls in a single month — truly historic. That would have been unimaginable just four short months…
Messianism is the belief in the arrival of a messiah, who will save or liberate people. Understandably, the need for a messiah is increased during times of stress or fear. We can witness the increasing number of messiahs or “strong-man” leaders in the last fifty years, which has been a time of many wars, of vast technological changes, of increasing concentrations of wealth, and puzzling…
Thank you, Mr. President!
For years, I’ve argued that news is addictive. It is just like smoking or drinking or illegal drugs . While there are many non-profit organizations and for-profit companies to treat those traditional addictions, there is nobody to help you with your news addiction. The news organizations will not help you. They are NOT in the business of informing watchers. They are in the business of…
Many people think all economic downturns are recessions – just mild recessions and severe recessions. Actually, there is a difference between a recession and a financial crisis. (The latter shares some characteristics with a Black Swan event.) Recessions are generally predictable events, while a financial crisis is much less predictable, like 2008. Of course, neither is a medical crisis. When our current medical crisis began,…
