Anybody who has cared for an aging parent knows how difficult it is to “take their keys away.” Hartford Funds has just published a helpful resource for this problem. You can find it at: https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/prospectingmaterials/Whitepapers/MAI166.pdf Fortunately, “taking their keys away” may have become easier, by ride-sharing with companies like Uber and Lyft. Only 13% of those over 65 have used ride-sharing, compared to 45% of…
If you were tired of the breathless coverage of the Mueller report over the last two years, then find some sympathy for our British friends, who have dangled at the end of the Brexit string even longer. Their angst is clearly worst than ours. After failing as badly as any elected body in modern history, their Parliament is likely to permit a “crash-out” Brexit in…
In the fourth quarter, the Fed looked hostile. I argued Quantitative Tightening would kill the market. Q4 was the worst quarter in 20 years. In the first quarter of this year, the Fed turned neutral and the Chinese tariff negotiations turned optimistic. Q1 was the best quarter in 10 years. Tech stocks, real estate and industrials led the way, with Materials, Finance, and Healthcare bringing…
Now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has completed his study, I thank him for his service over the past two years. And, I congratulate the President and his family on surviving that Inquisition. Having said that, in August of 2017, I wrote about the problem of writing, when Donald Trump has any tenuous link to the story. His powerful personality “sucks the oxygen out of…
Egypt is a relatively large country, with a population approaching 100 million. Tourism is its leading industry, employing one of every seven Egyptians. The Nile region is also a major agricultural producer. It is the only non-OPEC oil producer in the Mid-East. After passing South Africa last year, Egypt is now the fastest growing economy in Africa. It is also surprising that Cairo has become…
I believe in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which is the investment philosophy of virtually all institutional money managers in this country. This Nobel Prize-winning theory found that a portfolio can achieve higher returns with lower risk – the “Holy Grail” — by allocating the portfolio across many asset classes, such as big company stocks, small company stocks, short-term bonds, long-term bonds, commodities, real estate, etc. …
Ron Pearson is a long-term friend, a retired financial planner, as well as a retired Navy fighter pilot. Ten years ago, he wrote about the sad state of Social Security. With his permission, I’m republishing it here – to show how the problems of Social Security are not new, and that we have been writing about it for too long. ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Government-Speak – Do you…
I have a great deal of respect for Ric Edelman, who was one of the financial planning pioneers in the Washington area. Having done well, he is now focused on doing good. He sees the greatest medical disaster approaching us as the rising cost of Alzheimer’s disease, and I have no reason to disagree with him. In addition, he sees the greatest financial disaster approaching…
The December trade deficit was the highest in ten years. The hand-wringing was immediate and painful. You’ll recall the President campaigned hard that he would cut that deficit in half. However, we should give the President a pass on this promise. The deficit for that one month was not too worrisome, given we’re in the middle of several trade wars, and the dollar is stubbornly…
In the last century, when I took my first course in economics, I learned that socialism was an economic system calling for public ownership of the major means of production and transportation. The important point was that it was an economic system, not a political system. Today, Wikipedia describes it as: Socialism is a range of economic and social systems characterised by social ownership of the means of production and workers’ self-management,[10] as well as the…
The conventional wisdom is that the economy and the stock market move together. In the long run, that is true but not always in short run. This is one of those times, when the stock market is doing too good! At first blush, Wall Street cheered when the Q4 GDP growth showed 2.6%, considerably better to the 2.2% that was expected. Assuming 2.6% is correct,…
I’m a gun-lover. I have lots of guns. I was even a member of the National Rifle Association, until they went crazy. The Kentucky legislature is dumb! They just legalized any 21-year-old loser, who hasn’t been convicted of a crime yet and who hasn’t been declared crazy yet, to carry a concealed weapon in that state without a permit and without any training at all.…
Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was an Englishman and one of the first economists. However, as a result of his work, economics was often described “the dismal science.” He concluded that mankind was doomed to war and starvation, because population increases faster than food production. When population exceeded food, there would be enough war to bring population back into balance. Pretty dismal, huh? What he didn’t…
Dr. Jeremy Siegel of Wharton has long been one of Wall Street’s most respected investment strategists. His track record is most impressive indeed. His recent commentary reconciles a rising stock market with weakening profits. He believes the suddenly dovish Fed is propping up the stock market in the face of those weakening profits. Plus, he still sees no reliable indication of recession in the foreseeable…
A longtime reader from France concurred with my recent blog on the ethical issues surrounding Facebook and added these interesting comments. > Since college days, I have believed that at the turn of last century, the American social contract had been broken, meaning that the “robber barons” and “captains of industry” had stolen the American dream. The giant mining and railway industries had ground mine…
As an existentialist, I know how important privacy is. Long after I concluded that Facebook is the most UnAmerican company, new details have emerged. We have just learned that Facebook pays App developers to include an analytic tool called “App Events”, which notifies Facebook of details in a person’s life. For example, if you use the Realtor.com app to view houses, that information is sent…
Some cracks are appearing in our economy. Orders for durable goods, especially of core capital goods, have slowed more than expected. Industrial production has slowed for two straight months. The Philly Fed Index has dropped into correction territory. While there is no cause for alarm, there is some cause for concern. Three years ago, in the first quarter, the economy showed signs of weakness, and…
Yesterday, Venezuela was circling the drain. Britain was tiptoeing to the precipice of Brexit. Putin threatened the U.S. if we put missiles in Europe. Trump continued to push China on Trade. Italy moved closer to bankruptcy. Genocide continued in Myanmar. And, so on . . . So, why did the media focus on some TV actor who staged his own assault, because he felt underpaid…
During the last Presidential Administration, Republicans definitely suffered from “Obama Derangement Syndrome.” Showing stupidity knows no labels, Democrats are now suffering from “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” Just as two wrongs don’t make a right, two stupid attitudes don’t make any sense. Based on an ambiguous 1973 memo, it has been assumed that a sitting President could not be indicted, but that is now being challenged. Democrats…
Which American company do I trust the least: Cigarette companies which merely peddle death or Big Tech, like Facebook or Google, which merely shred privacy. Cigarette companies have labels admitting their product may cause death and misery. Facebook and Google don’t admit there are any bad effects from selling personal information about you to strangers. At least, the cigarette companies are more honest and upfront.…
Recognizing the stock market and the economy are two different things, I am more worried about the stock market this year than the economy, and here’s why: First, automated trading by algorithms is already well over 70% of all trades on the NYSE. Some estimates are as high as 90%. There is nothing inherently dangerous about a formula, that says “if this, then do that.” …
It’s easy to confuse the stock market with the economy. They are clearly related but still different. I have compared them to a brother and sister — related but different. Another comparison is to an aircraft carrier and a fighter jet. The economy is big and lumbering, like an aircraft carrier. It does not change directions quickly, compared to the stock market or fighter jet,…
I attended a lecture on this recently and keep thinking about it. The paradox is that we are living longer but clueless what to do with the extra time. I know one person whose driving ambition in life was to NOT work. He is now 95 years old and would be happy to NOT work for another 95 years. He can easily entertain himself, sitting…
I’ve had the good fortune to stay in four & five star hotels in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. Of course, there are always favorite hotels One of mine has been the Diplomat Hotel in Hollywood. FL. Fifteen years ago, I described it as one of the best hotels in the world. It was a great hotel in an architecturally stunning…
In 1893, the closed-end fund (CEF) was invented, and financial advisors said “this is better than sliced bread.” In 1924, the mutual fund was invented, and financial advisors said,”this is better than sliced bread.” In 1984, the exchange traded fund was invented, and financial advisors said “this is better than sliced bread.” Recently, “mass personalization” was invented, and financial advisors are holding their breath. In this version…
In 1893, the closed-end fund (CEF) was invented, and financial advisors said “this is better than sliced bread.” In 1924, the mutual fund was invented, and financial advisors said,”this is better than sliced bread.” In 1984, the exchange traded fund was invented, and financial advisors said “this is better than sliced bread.” Recently, “mass personalization” was invented, and financial advisors are holding their breath. In…
Ask an economist what determines growth in GDP, he/she will tell you it depends on productivity growth and growth in the labor force. That’s the reason so many economists support increased immigration. While I had not yet read “21 Lessons for the 21st Century” by Yuval Noah Harari, I have already ordered it from Amazon and cannot wait to read it. I did so because I…
Normally, we look at changes to the stock market that result from changes in the economy. However, the economy can be changed by what happens on stock market. In the fourth quarter, the Small Business Confidence Index reached an all-time high. As long as confidence is high, business is more likely to hire additional workers, replace inventory, and make capital investments. Confidence is important! Then,…
According to the Vikings, there are many types of courage. There is courage on the battlefield. There is the courage to be ethical in the real world. There is the courage to be painfully honest with friends. There is the courage to stand up for your religious belief, as well as non-religious beliefs. But, the greatest courage of all is to “laugh while you die.” …
In the third grade, I was picked for the role of Uncle Remus in the school play, due to my heavy southern accent. I appeared in blackface. In the eighth grade, I was a member of the Key Club, which performed the Can-Can for the entire school. I appeared in a dress. Why do my black friends take offense, while my female friends merely laugh?
There are numerous pithy sayings about history, e.g., “Those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it” — or, “history may not repeat itself, but at least it rhymes.” There are also pithy sayings about market timing on Wall Street, e.g., “So goes January, so goes the year” — or, “the safest year of a presidential term is the third year.” Nonetheless, I wouldn’t be…
For a record-breaking 100 straight months, which is long before President Trump took office, the American economy has been producing jobs – lots of them! Last month, we produced a whopping 304 thousand jobs and have averaged 234 thousand a month for the past twelve months. Also, individual earnings are up, and more workers are entering the workforce. It is yet another indication of the…
For the next day or so, Ralph Northam is still the governor of Virginia. While we are not friends and he does not know my name, we have met several times and kidded each other about marrying girls from Texas. I know him only as a nice guy and a veteran who cared enough to gave up his lucrative medical practice in order to serve…