The Flinchum File

Thoughtful Economic Analysis and Existential Opinions
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Welcome to The Flinchum File

I am an Accredited Investment Fiduciary at Bay Capital Advisors, an investment firm headquartered in Virginia Beach, VA. After retiring from Truist Bank, I started this firm to work more closely with a smaller number of clients, and it has been great! Our client load is about 25% of the national average.

Writing is not for the shy or the meek. It exposes a person’s mind and character. I hope you enjoy the view.

The opinions expressed in The Flinchum File are those of the writer, Jim Flinchum, and do not necessarily reflect those of Bay Capital Advisors, LLC

Spread Too Thin ?

Long ago, when I was living in Texas, I read a short book, whose name is now long lost inside my memory.  It speculated on how America would be different if Hitler had won World War II.  Not surprisingly, it described a dystopian America as merely a state of the Ayran Nation.  There would be no Blacks, no Hispanics, no Asians and no American Indians. …

Invisible and Vulnerable

While it is painful to watch the vulnerable children along our southern border, it is at least visible.  Less visible is mistreatment of another vulnerable population, i..e., the elderly.  It doesn’t happen to large groups but to one lonely invisible individual after another. But, did you know that you can be fined between $500 and $1,000 if you know of any elder abuse and don’t…

At Any Cost

It was in Billings, Montana on May 26th, 2016, when the President promised:“We’re going to win. We’re going to win so much. We’re going to win at trade, we’re going to win at the border. We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning, you’re going to come to me and go ‘Please, please, we can’t win anymore.’…

Disappointment

As 2018 dawned, it looked like we were enjoying synchronized global growth.  The U.S. had led the world out of the recession and now looked forward to the increasing growth in Europe and Asia.  But that didn’t happen.  Instead, the U.S. has gotten stronger, while the others fell further behind. For example, the Chinese central bank cancelled a scheduled increase in interest rates.  Capital Investment…

Suicide Mission ?

Republicans abuse Supply-side economics, which argues that a tax cut increases the budget deficit in the short run but decreases the deficit in the long run.  They are hostage to the baseless belief that all tax cuts are beneficial at all times.  Republicans are not aware that a tax cut will not cure the common cold. Democrats abuse Keynesian economics, which argues that budget deficits…

Mixed Blessing

Those old enough to remember the U.S. economy during 1970’s will remember the panicky headlines about runaway inflation.  Do you remember the stories about elderly women eating dog food?  Do you remember Gerald Ford’s WIN Campaign, which meant Whip Inflation Now?  Nobody wishes for a return of that level of inflation again! But, a little inflation is a big blessing, and it looks like we’re…

Braking While Accelerating

Traditionally, increases in interest rates in one country draw money from other countries, seeking the higher rate, which causes the currency of the first country to appreciate and the currency of the second country to depreciate.  For example, to move funds from Japan to the U.S., you have to sell your Yen to buy dollars, which drives up the value of the dollar, because the…

R.I.P. The Right Thing

For far too long, investors have been confused about investment advisors and stockbrokers.  Investment Advisors are just that — stockbrokers are just salesmen.  Stockbrokers have loyalty to their companies.  Investment Advisors have loyalty to their clients.  Also, stockbrokers can charge hidden fees.  Investment Advisors can NOT!  For example, stockbrokers can invest your money into mutual funds that pay “kickbacks”  (12b1-1 fees) or send the stockbroker…

The 13th Step

I know, I know . . . America is going to pot, and the young Millennials will only make it worse!  They’re lazy know-it-alls.  They eat healthy but don’t attend church?  They even have premarital sex!  I know, I know!  However, they do see one thing clearly — the vileness from the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.  They also clearly see the vileness of…

Friend or Foe

Most people realize their knowledge is limited when discussing stocks, bonds, and other types of investments.  But, everybody thinks they’re an expert on cash, probably because they use it everyday. Our currency says “In God We Trust.”  It does NOT say “In Cash We Trust!”  There is nothing sacred about cash.  It is just another asset class. But, it is an asset class that impacts…

Just Say No

I was visiting with one of my Democratic friends, and she said “Scratch any Republican and they will automatically complain about the lamestream media.” The irony of this is that, she said, since the viewership of Fox News exceeds the viewership of CNN and MSNBC – combined – that Fox is now the lamestream media. She went on to say Republicans laugh at their allegiance…

YTD Snapshots

From time to time, it is useful to look for underlying trends in the market.  Looking at the YTD data through May 31st, it would be hard to miss the impact of two trends, i.e., a possible trade war and the increase in interest rates. The large multinational companies would be more impacted by a trade war than smaller companies.  To prove the point, large…

More Good News

Today’s “Jobs Report” was simply great.  Headline numbers are: 1.  New jobs created in May was 223 thousand, substantially more than the 188 thousand estimated.2.  The previous two months were revised higher by another 15 thousand jobs.3.  The unemployment rate is only 3.8% – the lowest since the global financial crisis4.  Under-employment (U-6) dropped from 7.8% to 7.6% – also the lowest since the global…

Sniffing a Crisis ??

Let’s take a look at economic data released in the last few weeks: 1.  Consumer confidence rose again in May.2.  The increased gas prices are not expected to be impact consumer disposable income significantly,3.  Existing home sales dropped 2.5% due to lack of homes to sell, which is a good problem.4.  Home prices have risen 6.5% since April of last year and show no sign…

An Earned Salute

When I was a boy, I remember my father telling me many times I should get a “do-nothing government job.”  It was an extra bonus that nobody could ever be fired in such a job.  That never made sense to me, as I strongly believe that work is good for the mind, body and soul. Those abusive practices continue today, as numerous government-worker-friends have assured…

HA HA !

I will not say . . . I told you so.I will not say . . . I told you so.I will not say . . . I told you so. We’ve all seen those new home gadgets from Amazon, called Alexa, which allows the homeowner to ask questions, both big and little, as well buy things conveniently.  Google has a similar gadget.  They just…

Indignation Evolution

I recall writing years ago that “if we are free only to be respectful, then we are not really free at all.”  Yet, I was quite angry when the NFL players refused to stand during the national anthem.  It was disrespectful to a symbol that is intensely important to me.  I reacted too strongly to that slight. After evolving, I realize a lack of respect…

Look, It’s Alive !

As we witness the highly partisan attacks on such institutions as the FBI and EPA, it is easy to overlook some surprising life in our long-dead Zombie Congress. Last August, the Senate passed “right-to-try” legislation, which permits terminal patients to try unproven drugs.  The House passed it this week, and it goes to the President, who is expected to sign it into law.  I applaud…

Fear of Peasants

When I went to China a few years ago, my strongest impression was just how frightened the central government is — afraid of their own people.  That makes the tightest controls on freedom necessary.  After all, with a minimal middle-class, China could have a billion poor people take to the streets — how scary is that visual image? Three years ago, they started the Asian…

Rat Poison Squared

Warren Buffett was wrong!  He recommended against buying both Amazon and Google.  He was wrong! So what?  There is also a rumor he might actually be human! One of his primary rules is to buy what you understand.  Who understood Google when they heard about it the first time?  Techies just delight in saying that non-techies are Luddites,  I’m proud to wear that label, alongside…

Yet Another School Shooting

Gun lovers (like myself) say “This is crazy!”Gun nuts say “This is crazy!” Gun lovers say “There’s too many guns!”Gun nuts say “There’s not enough guns!” Gun lovers say “Conduct real background checks!”Gun nuts say “Background checks give the government too much power!” Gun lovers ask “Does everybody have the right to have guns!”Gun nuts say “It’s already illegal for crazy people to have guns!”…

Loving the Pampered?

How can anything so routine and mundane put so many smiles on so many faces worldwide?  I’ve been bewildered by this all my life but am finally starting to understand . . . maybe. The British Royal family is arguably the best known family on the list of the world’s ten most pampered families.  Despite that elite status, working class people worldwide cheer whenever a…

Capital Punishment

I have long urged investors to make sure there is always a custodian (TD, Schwab, Pershing, etc.), because that keeps their advisor honest.  But, I’m increasingly despondent, as I was just reading about yet another Ponzi scheme, based in Boca Raton, stealing $1.2 BILLION from 8,400 investors, mostly in Florida and Colorado. It is a travesty to measure a Ponzi scheme by the dollars stolen. …

In the beginning . . .

. . . there was Benjamin Graham, the father of investment management and author of the dryly titled Security Analysis.  He was the mentor for Warren Buffett.  Graham advocated a “bottoms-up” approach to investment management, which requires exhaustive analysis of all financial statements, physical inspection of all facilities, and probing interviews with senior management.  The criticism of this approach is that investors get the best…

Rising Interest Rates ??

It is widely assumed that the Fed will continue raising interest rates, and they will.  They want to “normalize” the level of interest rates, as well as having some “dry powder” in case the economy stumbles and needs lower rates.  Plus, they believe higher rates will encourage increased savings. There is also a technical reason to believe interest rates will increase.  Now, take a look…

Rich Folks Hoax

The moon is hanging in the purple skyBaby’s sleeping while its mother signsTalking ’bout the rich folksRich folks have the same jokesAnd they park in basic places The priest is preaching from a shallow graveHe counts his money, then he paints you savedTalking to the young folksYoung folks share the same jokesAnd they meet in older places So don’t tell me about your successNor your…

What I Wished For ?

Long time readers will recall ten years ago or so that I lamented the death of democracy when Republicans and Democrats could not even do the things they agree on — for fear of “cooperating with each other.”  I pondered endlessly about Erdogan’s famous comment that “Democracy is like a train – when you get to your stop, you get off.”  I longed for a…

Your Personal Roadblocks

The media reports the unemployment rate each month, which is currently about 4%.  Economists normally look at the JOLTS report, which shows the number of job openings is a record high 4.2%.  In other words, there are more job openings than there are workers to fill those jobs.  This is a all-time record.  The job market is TIGHT! Equally important, workers rarely quit a job…

A Planner Too Long ?

In 1985, I watched the classic Out of Africa movie with Meryl Streep and Robert Redford.  She played a wealthy Danish woman who came to Kenya and fell in love with a professional game-hunter.  By the end of the movie, she had lost her wealth, and he had lost his life.  A sad love story, the film nonetheless won seven Academy awards. In 1988, I earned…

Take A Stand !

Suppose I owe you a lot of money and then suppose I only pay you 77% of what I owe you.  How happy would you be?  Now, suppose you knew 20 years before that it would happen.  Would you try to do something about it? Social Security is a pay-as-you-go entitlement, meaning money paid into the system immediately goes out to recipients.  Up until 1965,…

The Joy of Regulation

It is fashionable to “trash-talk” regulations, and some of that is fair.  However, some regulations are better than others and are actually good for America! Famously described as “financial weapons of mass destruction” by Warren Buffet, derivatives have posed ever-greater risks to the financial system and were largely responsible for the global financial crisis of 2008/9.  I have often said I would sell 25% of…

Bay Capital Advisors Receives Top 10 Wealth Management Companies Award

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