Today’s “Jobs Report” was simply great. Headline numbers are: 1. New jobs created in May was 223 thousand, substantially more than the 188 thousand estimated.2. The previous two months were revised higher by another 15 thousand jobs.3. The unemployment rate is only 3.8% – the lowest since the global financial crisis4. Under-employment (U-6) dropped from 7.8% to 7.6% – also the lowest since the global…
Let’s take a look at economic data released in the last few weeks: 1. Consumer confidence rose again in May.2. The increased gas prices are not expected to be impact consumer disposable income significantly,3. Existing home sales dropped 2.5% due to lack of homes to sell, which is a good problem.4. Home prices have risen 6.5% since April of last year and show no sign…
Our flag does not fly because the wind moves it. It flies with the last breath of each soldier who died protecting it! God bless them, every single one!
When I was a boy, I remember my father telling me many times I should get a “do-nothing government job.” It was an extra bonus that nobody could ever be fired in such a job. That never made sense to me, as I strongly believe that work is good for the mind, body and soul. Those abusive practices continue today, as numerous government-worker-friends have assured…
I will not say . . . I told you so.I will not say . . . I told you so.I will not say . . . I told you so. We’ve all seen those new home gadgets from Amazon, called Alexa, which allows the homeowner to ask questions, both big and little, as well buy things conveniently. Google has a similar gadget. They just…
I recall writing years ago that “if we are free only to be respectful, then we are not really free at all.” Yet, I was quite angry when the NFL players refused to stand during the national anthem. It was disrespectful to a symbol that is intensely important to me. I reacted too strongly to that slight. After evolving, I realize a lack of respect…
As we witness the highly partisan attacks on such institutions as the FBI and EPA, it is easy to overlook some surprising life in our long-dead Zombie Congress. Last August, the Senate passed “right-to-try” legislation, which permits terminal patients to try unproven drugs. The House passed it this week, and it goes to the President, who is expected to sign it into law. I applaud…
When I went to China a few years ago, my strongest impression was just how frightened the central government is — afraid of their own people. That makes the tightest controls on freedom necessary. After all, with a minimal middle-class, China could have a billion poor people take to the streets — how scary is that visual image? Three years ago, they started the Asian…
Warren Buffett was wrong! He recommended against buying both Amazon and Google. He was wrong! So what? There is also a rumor he might actually be human! One of his primary rules is to buy what you understand. Who understood Google when they heard about it the first time? Techies just delight in saying that non-techies are Luddites, I’m proud to wear that label, alongside…
Gun lovers (like myself) say “This is crazy!”Gun nuts say “This is crazy!” Gun lovers say “There’s too many guns!”Gun nuts say “There’s not enough guns!” Gun lovers say “Conduct real background checks!”Gun nuts say “Background checks give the government too much power!” Gun lovers ask “Does everybody have the right to have guns!”Gun nuts say “It’s already illegal for crazy people to have guns!”…
How can anything so routine and mundane put so many smiles on so many faces worldwide? I’ve been bewildered by this all my life but am finally starting to understand . . . maybe. The British Royal family is arguably the best known family on the list of the world’s ten most pampered families. Despite that elite status, working class people worldwide cheer whenever a…
I have long urged investors to make sure there is always a custodian (TD, Schwab, Pershing, etc.), because that keeps their advisor honest. But, I’m increasingly despondent, as I was just reading about yet another Ponzi scheme, based in Boca Raton, stealing $1.2 BILLION from 8,400 investors, mostly in Florida and Colorado. It is a travesty to measure a Ponzi scheme by the dollars stolen. …
. . . there was Benjamin Graham, the father of investment management and author of the dryly titled Security Analysis. He was the mentor for Warren Buffett. Graham advocated a “bottoms-up” approach to investment management, which requires exhaustive analysis of all financial statements, physical inspection of all facilities, and probing interviews with senior management. The criticism of this approach is that investors get the best…
It is widely assumed that the Fed will continue raising interest rates, and they will. They want to “normalize” the level of interest rates, as well as having some “dry powder” in case the economy stumbles and needs lower rates. Plus, they believe higher rates will encourage increased savings. There is also a technical reason to believe interest rates will increase. Now, take a look…
The moon is hanging in the purple skyBaby’s sleeping while its mother signsTalking ’bout the rich folksRich folks have the same jokesAnd they park in basic places The priest is preaching from a shallow graveHe counts his money, then he paints you savedTalking to the young folksYoung folks share the same jokesAnd they meet in older places So don’t tell me about your successNor your…
Long time readers will recall ten years ago or so that I lamented the death of democracy when Republicans and Democrats could not even do the things they agree on — for fear of “cooperating with each other.” I pondered endlessly about Erdogan’s famous comment that “Democracy is like a train – when you get to your stop, you get off.” I longed for a…
There is no American I respect more than John McCain.Therefore, there is no American I respect less than Donald Trump.
The media reports the unemployment rate each month, which is currently about 4%. Economists normally look at the JOLTS report, which shows the number of job openings is a record high 4.2%. In other words, there are more job openings than there are workers to fill those jobs. This is a all-time record. The job market is TIGHT! Equally important, workers rarely quit a job…
In 1985, I watched the classic Out of Africa movie with Meryl Streep and Robert Redford. She played a wealthy Danish woman who came to Kenya and fell in love with a professional game-hunter. By the end of the movie, she had lost her wealth, and he had lost his life. A sad love story, the film nonetheless won seven Academy awards. In 1988, I earned…
Suppose I owe you a lot of money and then suppose I only pay you 77% of what I owe you. How happy would you be? Now, suppose you knew 20 years before that it would happen. Would you try to do something about it? Social Security is a pay-as-you-go entitlement, meaning money paid into the system immediately goes out to recipients. Up until 1965,…
It is fashionable to “trash-talk” regulations, and some of that is fair. However, some regulations are better than others and are actually good for America! Famously described as “financial weapons of mass destruction” by Warren Buffet, derivatives have posed ever-greater risks to the financial system and were largely responsible for the global financial crisis of 2008/9. I have often said I would sell 25% of…
On a long flight recently, I took the opportunity to read a biography on Tiger Woods. Everybody knows the story of Tiger, but I am interested in father-son relationship between Earl-Tiger. Earl was a former Green Beret, who was determined that his son could change the world, literally. He had a disciplined focus on that objective. Earl taught Tiger the disciplined focus of Special…
If you have ever wanted to see the beautiful country of South Africa, I recommend you do so within the next year. The pot is beginning to boil! GDP growth rate is flat, compared to 2.2% in the U.S. and 6.8% in China. Inflation is 6%, compared to 2% in the U.S. Unemployment is 27%, compared to 4.1% in the U.S. To appreciate how destabilizing…
It is bad enough that the morally-challenged technology firms in Silicon Valley argue they have a right to know everywhere you go online, everything you buy in stores, every event you attend, and every lever you pull on election day. But, those big tech firms are nothing more than apologists for advertising firms. After all, who doesn’t want personally-targeted advertisements? I’ve never viewed economists as…
My Republican friends think I’m a Democrat. My Democratic friends think I’m a Republican. They’re both wrong! I’m an Austrian economist. Both Republicans and Democrats practice deficit spending, but they cloak it with clever phrases. The Republicans call it “tax reform.” The Democrats call it “social investing.” Both phrases are cute cloaks for deficit spending. Of course, both insist the deficit spending is merely a…
My Republican friends laugh when I describe Jimmy Carter as our greatest ex-President. A wealthy man, he has devoted his post-presidential life to helping others. However, only Trump-Republicans laugh when I describe Barbara Bush as our greatest ex-First Lady. After all, she was not a Trump-Republican. But, she worked tirelessly raising money to fight illiteracy, raising close to $200 million dollars for that cause. Whatever…
One of the components of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is homebuilder confidence, which has dropped again, for the fourth consecutive month. This is not good news. However, there are good reasons for it! There is ample demand for new homes, but there is a shortage of lots to build on and almost none of those are conveniently located for homebuyers. Plus, our country…
It was thirteen months ago that I predicted that President Trump would be impeached or resign. My Democratic friends applauded, while my Republican friends condemned. It was not a prediction that was made with any joy. Make no mistake: Any constitutional crisis is bad for the country, which therefore also makes it bad for the stock market. When I made the original prediction, my confidence…
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I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so.I will NOT say . . . I told you so. That expression is so sanctimonious but seems to mean less as we get older? Yes, ten years ago, once I understood the business model…
A bright shiny object attracts the eye, away from other things. Likewise, the eyes are also a bright shiny object attracting the mind, away from other things. Some people may not be as observant of bright shiny objects in the outside world, they may be more observant of bright shiny objects of the inside world — inside their own minds. Most care more about the…
“Strum and Drang” is a German expression, roughly meaning “Storm and Drive.” It described the eighteenth century anti-enlightenment philosophy embracing emotionalism and rejecting rationalism. Such is also the presidency of Donald J. Trump, and I pray that it is worth it. The latest instance is threatening a trade war, particularly with the world’s second largest economy, China. Despite the predictable over-reaction of stock markets worldwide,…