My quarterly column for Inside Business can be found here: https://www.pilotonline.com/inside-business/vp-ib-expert-flinchum-1012-20201009-ee7quugvvfevha6huodveq3txa-story.html
It is no surprise that white middle-aged men have economic and social advantages in life. Of course, these blessed Americans also have 69.97% of all suicides. One usual reason is the guilt of having squandered their “white-male” advantages by accomplishing so little. It is the curse of “the American Dream.” Another reason is that white males are encouraged to become white ALPHA males. To…
If President Trump is reelected, my Democratic friends will find that as proof of our continuing systemic racism. If President Trump is defeated, my Republican friends will blame it on the media. Niall Ferguson is a brilliant, widely-respected, Scottish-born conservative, who is a professor of history at Stanford and has authored numerous excellent books. Personally, I find him less than affable, and I suspect he…
For years, I have recommended that everyone have a “news-free” day. That is especially important as the never-ending pandemic stretches on, as our political establishment continues to embarrass us, as neighbors gravitate into Red or Blue tribes, as domestic strife breeds domestic terror, and so on. Saturday is my day to be free of news. It is easy to change channels on television, and I’ve…
I’m concerned that many mail-in ballots will be disqualified, because zero errors are permitted. You might mail in a ballot with an error unknowingly, only to have your ballot disqualified and not know it. Unfortunately, I did make an error completing my ballot. Since I could no longer vote-by-mail, I went to the Courthouse and stood in line for a while, but I got to…
Since signing the agreement to a ceasefire in the trade war with China, that trade war has been crowded off the front page by the election, but interesting things are still happening. Despite a long-established reputation as a currency manipulator (in order to make their exports cheaper for foreigners to buy), they have actually allowed their currency (Yuan) to appreciate or go up by 3.9%…
Nobody wants to pay higher taxes and have less money to take home to their families. Some taxpayers say taxes alone drive all their decisions, which I don’t understand. I know one man in Texas who actually sold his house and moved to another state, away from his grandchildren, just to avoid increased real estate taxes. Guess his mother never told him: “Moderation in all…
It is a trivial thing, I know, but the way a President returns salutes has always been interesting to me. Both President Bushes saluted properly, which I appreciated. President Clinton (a non-veteran) never did figure it out. Bless his heart, but President Obama did try the hardest. However, President Trump always had a excellent salute, especially for a non-veteran. Sadly, as he boarded Marine One…
Readers know the low regard I’ve had for the Presidency of Donald J. Trump. Despite all that, I pray that he, his family, and his staff enjoy a quick, complete recovery from the coronavirus! Nobody deserves that awful disease. Be well, Mr. President!
Consumer Confidence is a key indicator of the economy, especially future retail sales. In February, it was 132.6 – a record high. Then, the pandemic hit and Consumer Confidence dropped to 85.7 in April. Monday, we learned it has risen nicely to 101.8. This was better than expected. We have spoken before about the two-speed economy, composed of those who floated above the pandemic-recession –…
With a $3 trillion national deficit this year and trillion dollar deficits expected to continue for years-to-come, there is an increasing anxiety about an economic collapse. Today, the release of the Net International Investment Position (NIIP) heightened that anxiety . . . but unnecessarily. The NIIP is focused on the amount of income we receive from our ownership of foreign assets, compared to the money…
Most of us see of a slippery slope from forgetfulness to dementia to Alheimer’s, but one does not necessarily lead to another. Forgetfulness is normal and even has the fancy name of “mild cognitive linguistic deficit”. I have been fortunate to work with senior citizens for most of my life. At least a thousand times, I have reassured a person that forgetting names or losing…
The joke among investment analysts is . . . if you want to have a small fortune in airline stocks, you just need to invest a large fortune! The aviation industry is a huge business, employing many thousands of people and consuming huge quantities of capital – both debt capital and equity capital. Whenever there is an economic crisis, they also consume large quantities of…
Some people believe that “those who refuse to learn the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them.” Some pundits amuse themselves by saying “history may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” My view is that history is the best flashlight we have to find a pathway in the dark. Here are some lessons I’ve learned about the history of the stock market. I…
Like most people, we have been cloistered the last seven months, with trips to the grocery store for excitement and an occasional meal at a local open-air restaurant. Recently, I needed to visit a client in Greenville, South Carolina. So, it was with some trepidation that we temporarily re-entered the normal world, because it was important. There was more traffic than expected. At stops, most…
We tend to think of life in three phases: childhood years, working years, and retirement years. This reflects the lifecycle model of a time when jobs were secure and lifespans were short. This has all changed, and we should update our perspective. In the past, we’ve noted that some work (either for money or for charity) helps a person negotiate the change from worker-to-non-worker identity,…
When the Fed meets and especially when the FOMC meets, they issue a written report, which is the most finely perused government report. Analysts scrutinize every word for any tiny minute change, even the placement of commas (seriously). It’s latest release promised to keep interest rates low for a longer period than predicted earlier. Now, it looks like no interest rate increases before 2023 or…
A new analysis from Brown University estimates the cost of the war in Iraq and in Afghanistan has been $6.4 trillion. Ignoring the necessity of those wars, focus on paying for the wars. Looking at www.usdebtclock.org, our national debt is about $26.8 trillion. That means the cost of those never-ending wars explains about 24% of our national debt. Due to the pandemic, our budget deficit…
Normally, we talk about economies in terms of separate countries, as in this country has a strong economy, while that country has a weak economy. Often, we slice economies by industries, as in this industry is doing well, while that industry is doing poorly. Since the 1970s, we have also sliced it by region, as in the northeastern U.S. is growing, while the southern U.S.…
Conspiracy theories are fashionable these days. Most psychologists suggest that some people are more susceptible to conspiracy theories than other people. That may be, but I suspect existentialists are the least susceptible. One of the few things I remember from high school physics is that atoms are in constant motion, colliding randomly with other atoms. The atoms don’t go into a back room and decide…
Having watched our RINO President refer to the late Senator McCain as a loser, and calling the late President Bush a loser for going down in his plane during World War II, and later disrespecting a Gold Star family, I don’t have any difficulty believing he also called our fallen soldiers losers and suckers. He even asked a grieving father why his fallen son fought…
Households making less than $300 thousand annually give about 2.3% to charity each year, while households making more than $300 thousand donate 4.4%. Households identifying as religious give twice as much as those who do not. Volunteers to charitable organizations give 2.5% of their income to charity each year, compared to 1.2% who don’t volunteer. Charitable giving tends to increase with age until age 65,…
It has been widely-reported that the U.S. Department of Justice has been overly-politicized, and that report is now widely accepted. It has been widely-reported that the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the Federal Drug Administration (FDA), two of the most respected institutions in the world, are being overly-politicized, which might explain why they started withholding demographic data on the coronavirus. What are the…
One of my favorite guns is a small Beretta .22LR automatic. It has 2″ barrel and six-shot clip. With such a short barrel, it is not accurate much past 20 feet, but it is small enough to fit into my front pants pocket — making it an ideal “pocket-pistol.” I keep it in the glove compartment and only slip it into my pocket when stopped…
Shutting down the economy is a terrible thing. It hurts the economy, as well as the emotional health of our citizens. Recognizing this, President Trump nonetheless had the courage to shut us down anyway. However, he remained under enormous pressure to get America open and back-to-normal as quickly as possible. The only thing worse than shutting down the economy is releasing it prematurely, possibly forcing…
Being a Republican is easy, just watch Fox News. Being a Democrat is easy, just watch MSNBC or even CNN. Being Independent NOT easy! NEWSY is unbiased but not deep enough. Being Independent does require you to watch news networks you don’t like. However, being Independent does not require you to watch national conventions. I watched exactly zero minutes of the Democratic Convention last week.…
Economists have two primary trade associations. First, the American Economic Association (AEA) is the oldest and is oriented toward academic economists, more commonly known as “nerds.” As far as I can tell, it has no ideological bent. If you can still solve quadratic equations in the dark, this group might be for you. Second, there is the National Association of Business Economics (NABE), where I’ve…
When closely-related but different subjects are conflated, heated arguments are not uncommon. A week or so ago, there was a heated kerfluffle about voting and the Post Office. My Republican friends became very animated, because others don’t see the problem of illegal voting as a big problem. My Democratic friends became very animated, because others don’t see the problem of voter suppression as a big…
If you build a swimming pool without a fence and a child drowns in it, you are guilty of creating an attractive hazard. Did you really expect a child NOT to jump into the pool? If you require college students to return to campus during the Covid-era, knowing there are bars and party venues near campus, are you not guilty of creating attractive hazard? Did…
It is no small understatement to say I’ve been disappointed with our current RINO President, but he deserves kudos for the Israel-UAE deal he announced last week. Since the birth of Israel in 1946, Israel has been the most hated neighbor in a nasty neighborhood. Slowly, it has made “peace” with Egypt and then Jordan. (The UAE is a small (10 million people) country but…
Most people are overly-fearful of recessions and shouldn’t be. Garden-variety recessions are routine. They come and go. The danger is that a garden-variety recession might morph into a financial crisis, which is much worse. We are certainly in a recession right now. (In fact, it is a totally unique “flash depression,” which sounds worse than it is.) The risk is that this recession might also…
Last summer, I visited the new National Memorial for Peace and Justice in Montgomery, Alabama, which is more widely known as “the lynching museum.” Touring both campuses, it was a long day feeling one of the horrors of history come alive. For example, I learned about the man that was lynched in my own hometown. It is a history museum . . . and much…
There is widespread agreement on Wall Street that development of a Covid-19 vaccine will be bullish. Of course, that’s true, but it also begs a few questions. First, how will we know when there is a credible vaccine? At completion of the phase three trials? When a bio-pharma company says so? When the CDC announces it? When there are enough doses for everybody? When? Second,…